Rasmussen: Fallin Leads Edmondson in General Election

Jul 07 2010 Published by Dr. Havel under Gubernatorial campaign

Rasmussen Reports has released their Oklahoma governor poll and it shows Congresswoman Mary Fallin with significant leads over both Drew Edmondson and Jari Askins.

If the race were held today, Rasmussen predicts Fallin would defeat Edmondson 48% to 39%, with 10% percent undecided.  Edmondson has gained slight ground since Rasmussen’s last poll in February, which showed Fallin defeating him 51%-36%.

Fallin has also expanded her lead against Jari Askins, the poll found.  If the election were held today, Fallin would runaway with victory 55%-32%, with 7% undecided.  In February Fallin led Askins 51%-37%. 

Rasmussen finds that Askins would also lose to Randy Brogdon and even loses to unknown GOP candidates Robert Hubbard and Roger Jackson, though by very slim margins with a high percentage of undecideds.  No one believes Askins would lose to Hubbard or Jackson once undecideds make a choice and those two candidate become better known to the general voting public.

Edmondson defeats all Republicans not named Mary Fallin.  Brogdon loses to Edmondson 35%-46%, with 14% undecided.

Both parties will choose their nominee in less than three weeks.  Fallin is considered the heavy favorite for the GOP nomination, while Democrats expect a dog fight for the Democratic nomination.

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Brogdon Supporters Spread False Claim Against Fallin

Apr 29 2010 Published by Dr. Havel under Gubernatorial campaign

Sparked by a blog post on Muskogee Politico, Randy Brogdon supporters have been spreading a false claim on Twitter that Mary Fallin , the Lt. Governor, contributed to Brad Henry’s re-election campaign in 2003, something that would be disturbing to Republican voters.  The Muskogee Politico post was based on incomplete and misleading information from a website called Follow the Money.  The website purported to show Mary Fallin’s campaign committee donated $800 to Brad Henry’s campaign.

In reality, the donation was to the Inaugural Ball, an event that many public officials of both parties contribute to. All of this information could easily be confirmed simply by looking at the Ethic Commission public disclosure website.

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Brogdon Backtracks, Lies About Intent

Apr 14 2010 Published by Dr. Havel under Gubernatorial campaign, Political Ideology

State Senator Randy Brogdon is backtracking from his call for a militia to “resist the federal government,” claiming he meant to say we need a militia in case we face another ice storm or bombing.

“If we had another ice storm or bombing, it would be very calming and reassuring to know that the chief executive officer, the governor of the state, has a state guard that he could pull from that could help out in these perilous times,” Brogdon said, as reported by the Associated Press.

Right.  That’s believable.

He says his comment was taken out of context. Here’s his quote in full:

The founding fathers “were not referring to a turkey shoot or a quail hunt. They really weren’t even talking about us having the ability to protect ourselves against each other,” Brogdon said. “The Second Amendment deals directly with the right of an individual to keep and bear arms to protect themselves from an overreaching federal government.”

Second Amendment. Right to bear arms. Protect from federal government.  Silly us!  Who doesn’t think of ice storms when they hear that?

Seriously, Senator?  Come on.

Brogdon isn’t only unflatteringly extreme; he also thinks all of us are dumb as rocks.

Senator Brogdon, you’ve dishonored yourself and your supporters. Apologize and resign.

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Legislative Black Caucus Embarrasses Itself

Mar 24 2010 Published by Dr. Havel under Oklahoma Politics

Another day, another controversy at Lincoln Boulevard.

This time fried chicken lunches are at the center of the controversy.  Members of the Legislative Black Caucus are calling on Senate leader Glenn Coffee to admonish Randy Brogdon for what they perceive to be a racially-charged remark against the national health care reform bill.

We read the story about the remark and unless we’re missing something important, it should be clear to any fair-minded person the Legislative Black Caucus is over-reacting and making a scene for no better reason than political expediency. That should surprise no one, by the way.

During a debate about the health care bill, Brogdon stated that “Congress has no more constitutional authority to tell us where to buy health insurance than they do to tell us where to buy a fried chicken dinner.”

See the racial insensitivity in that?  Neither do we.

And, we suspect, the members of the Legislative Black Caucus don’t truly believe that should be interpreted as a racist remark.

We know, as they do, that they simply want to embarrass one of their leading political opponents who just happens to be running for governor.  They want to create another controversy because they are starving for enthusiasm among their base.  And they know 2010 will not be a kind year for Democrats, and so they must do whatever they can to stem the tide.  Creating a faux racial controversy is one way to do it.

Unfortunately for their efforts, the people of Oklahoma will read this story and laugh at the notion that mentioning fried chicken in any context is now to be deemed racist.

How do we know they’re just trying to stir up controversy? Well, because Jabar Shumate, one of the members of the Black Caucus that called on Coffee to admonish Brogdon, basically admitted to it.

“I believe it was innocent,” Shumate said of the comment.

Jabar, if you believe it was innocent, then why are you asking for a formal admonition?

Rep. Shumate would do well to stay away from these rather absurd controversies.  He and the LBC should show a little intellectual fairness, withdraw their request, and issue an apology to Brogdon for making such lame insinuations about racism.

We’re not holding our breath, though.  That’s politics for you.

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Brogdon Campaign Terribly Spins Terrible Poll Results (!!!)

Jan 14 2010 Published by Dr. Havel under Gubernatorial campaign

If you want to read the worst spin put out to date by a campaign in the race for Oklahoma governor, read this (via McCarville) from State Senator Randy Brogdon. It is mind-boggling.

Sen. Brogdon needs to fire the spin doctor who put that out.  Besides the mortal sin of overusing exclamation marks like a 4th grader, it sounds desperate and naive.  Oh, and the person who wrote it doesn’t know how to read a simple poll.

Here are a couple examples of what we’re talking about:

Brogdon’s email: “[T]here were close to 19% of people in the poll who said ‘not for Mary.’ Since we have yet to spend any money on television and radio, they simply don’t know that there is another option. (…) Do the math; 19% for Randy Brogdon plus 19% for anyone but Mary Fallin places us at 38%. All we need is 50.1% to win the primary this July!”

That’s simply a false statement; there were not “close to 19% of people…who said ‘not for Mary.’”  There were 16% [*See update below: Brogdon's number was wrong] who said they were undecided or did not know who they would vote for at this point.  That’s very different from saying they oppose a particular candidate.  In fact, by Brogdon’s campaign’s hilarious logic, those same 16% also said “Not for Randy Brogdon.”  Clearly, he needs to get someone who can read a poll before he puts this stuff out.

But it’s even worse: using Brogdon’s calculus, not only did 16% say “Not for Randy Brogdon,” but 68% outright said they’re supporting Mary Fallin.  That makes Fallin’s total 84%! And, as Brogdon reminded us, a candidate only needs 50.1% to win in July, thereby giving Fallin a gigantic 33.9% cushion.

Brogdon’s campaign also said, “Finally, in a head to head match-up against the democrat challengers, my name wasn’t included, only my opponent’s. She barely beat the Liberal Democrat candidate with a narrow margin of 51%” (sic). The portion of the poll he is referring to is posted to the right.  First, polling costs a lot of money; it is pointless to spend resources conducting head-to-head polling for a candidate in a general election that doesn’t even currently show viability in a primary election.  Second–and here we’re just being pedantic–Brogdon unintentionally contradicted himself and killed his own case by citing Fallin’s margin of victory.  Fallin’s margin is 12 percentage points, not 51 as Brogdon claims.  If her margin was 51 points, that means she is obliterating Edmondson, not barely squeaking by.  (Note: Fallin’s margin against Brogdon is 52 points.)  Any pollster will tell you that 12 point lead is significant.  That’s not to say Edmondson is toast like Brogdon, especially with 10% undecided and 11 months to go, but it’s a substantial lead Edmondson will have to overcome if he is the Democrat nominee.

We don’t want to sound like we’re picking on Brogdon, because we’re not.  We’ve met him and spoken to him and he’s a very nice guy with some great ideas.  By all accounts he’s also been a good state senator.  But if he wants to be taken seriously as a candidate, he needs to take the people seriously as voters.  If that spin is any indication, Brogdon thinks we’re all idiots.

*UPDATE: Brogdon’s email had another problem: they said 19% indicated they supported Brogdon and 19% said “Not Mary.”  We should have tripled checked their numbers because the poll actually said 16% supported Brogdon and 16% were undecided or did not know.  Thus, Brogdon’s calculation was off by even more than we originally believed. The numbers have been updated throughout the post.

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Pork Battle Brewing

Aug 24 2009 Published by admin under Budget and taxes

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Several Conservative leaders in both State and County Government are taking action to stop questionable spending practices at the Capitol.  At issue is $16 million appropriated in SB 153 this past session for capital improvements to the Oklahoma Medical Research Foundation and the Jim Thorpe Association.

As the Oklahoma Constitution forbids state dollars being spent for private entities, the money doesn’t actually go directly to them, instead SB 153 directs the Association of Central Oklahoma Governments (ACOG) to pass through the money.  This “pass through” scheme has been employed for decades at the Legislature as a means for legislators to steer tax dollars to favored entities.

rod_clevelandIn the past, local government officials who sit on the COG boards have essentially rubber stamped such directives.  However that stopped at the last ACOG meeting when Cleveland County Commissioner Rod Cleveland and Logan County Commissioner Mark Sharpton stood up and opposed this pass through funding. sharpton
Randy Brogdon, State Senator from Owasso and candidate for Governor has requested an Attorney General’s opinion on this matter.  And State Representative Jason Murphey (R-Guthrie) has penned a blog post praising the courage of Cleveland and Sharpton.

In a summer where state agencies are being forced to cut their budgets, and in many cases passing those cuts down to counties, cities and school districts, perhaps the timing is right for there to be a discussion about the merits and indeed the legality of this funding scheme.  Okiepundit.com has learned that in addition to the request for an AG’s opinion, there may also be a separate legal challenge filed to SB 153.

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Session is Out, Let the Races Begin!

May 25 2009 Published by admin under Oklahoma Politics, State Legislature

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With the end of session, several legislators have set their sights on higher offices.  Here’s a quick look at the announced candidates for various state offices that will be on the ballot in 2010 as well as the race for the next Republican leaders in the House and Senate.

Senator Randy Brogdon of Owasso is the only legislator to enter the Governors race so far.  Brogdon, who is widely considered to be the most conservative member of the Senate, has a solid voting record, including authoring this year’s resolution declaring the state’s sovereign immunity under the 10th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.  But Brogdon’s ultra-conservatism also has put him at odds with the business community making it difficult for him to raise the campaign warchest necessary to be a competitve candidate against Mary Fallin.

On the Democratic side, former House member and current Lt. Governor Jari Askins has already begun her campaign for Governor, and current Attorney General Drew Edmondson (who has already raised nearly $500,000 and has not even announced his intentions yet) is rumored to be running.

Several legislators are eyeing the Lieutenant Governor’s seat, left open because of Jari Askins’s decision to run for Governor.  On the Democratic side are term-limited State Senator Kenneth Corn from LeFlore County (already announced he’s in) and State Representative John Carey from Durant.  Carey has indicated he’s going to run, but will make a formal announcement very soon.

On the Republican side, the field is already more crowded.  This past week term limited State Representative John Wright of Broken Arrow announced he’s a candidate.  Both State Senator Todd Lamb of Edmond and State Representative Colby Schwartz of Yukon are probably going to run and both have said they will make formal announcements this summer.  Given how close he came to winning in 2006, former House Speaker Todd Hiett of Kellyville, must not be counted out.  Other than helping the Oklahoma Republican Party and the Mary Fallin for Governor campaign raise money, Hiett has kept a pretty low profile, but should he enter the race, he would instantly become a front runner for the GOP nomination.

All other statewide offices (except one of the three Corporation Commissioners) will be on the ballot next year.  Among the Republican names being discussed for those seats are: Speaker Chris Benge, former Chickasha State Representative Susan Winchester, and former State Senator Owen Laughlin of Woodward for State Treasurer; former House staff attorney Jason Reese (he has already kicked off his campaign) and Mark Wayne Mullin, owner of Mullin Plumbing, (who has already begun raising money) in the race for Labor Commissioner, and Dr. Janet Baressi, former Co-Chair of the Achieving Classroom Excellence (ACE) Task Force that was created in 2007, for State Superintendent.

The Attorney General’srace seems to be drawing a lot of early interest on both sides.  On the Republican side are Sheldon Sperling, the current (though outgoing) U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District.  Sperling is the man who took down Gene Stipe and prosecuted him; Senate Pro-Tempore Glenn Coffee, State Senator Jonathan Nichols of Norman, Oklahoma City attorney Ryan Leonard  (who has already kicked off his campaign) and former Broken Arrow State Senator Scott Pruitt.

Democratic State Senator Tom Adelson of Tulsa is considering a run for Attorney General should Edmondson not seek reelection.  And there’s speculation that Treasurer Scott Meacham, who is a close friend of Governor Henry and has done a good job of appearing to be a “pro-business Democrat” is looking at this race.  Okiepundit.com has learned that Meacham’s political team has been doing work for Edmondson’s campaign, a good indication that he will run for Edmondson’s vacated position.

In the race for the 5th Congressional District, State Representative Mike Thompson of Oklahoma City and former State Representative Kevin Calvey have both already kicked off their campaigns.  Other Republicans rumored to be looking at that race are State Senator Clark Jolley of Edmond, Corporation Commissioner Jeff Cloud, and Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett, who lost to Mary Fallin in the 2006 Primary run-off.

There are also two big races inside the Capitol – the race to be the next Senate President Pro-Tempore and Speaker of the House.  Both men who hold those positions right now, Glenn Coffee and Chris Benge, are term limited in 2010.

The Speaker’s race, much to the chagrin of some in the Republican caucus, has already begun with members Kris Steele and Ken Miller both seeking to be the next Speaker.  House caucus rules say that the election cannot be held until sometime between September and December this year – an attempt to keep the internal politicking from interrupting the unity of the caucus – but Rep. Kris Steele and his supporters were passing around pledge cards during this session.  Rep. Ken Miller has taken a different approach, focusing on his duties as Chariman of the Appropriations and Budget Committee during this session and waiting until the interim to begin gathering his support.  Both Steele and Miller are leaders within the caucus and that race will probably be as close as previous races for Speaker have been in the recent past.

Over in the Senate, no real race has begun yet as perhaps Republican Senators are waiting to see who in their caucus ends up running for state wide and Congressional positions. Should Todd Lamb opt not to run for Lt. Governor, he may be considered a strong choice to replace Coffee as President Pro-Tempore.  Lamb currently has the number 2 postion in the Senate – Floor Leader.  Other potential candidates are Senator Brian Bingman of Sapulpa and Senator Clark Jolley of Edmond.

There is still a lot of time left before November 2010 and there will surely be many additions and maybe some subtractions to the list of candidates above.

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Watts Wins Stephens County Straw Poll

May 16 2009 Published by admin under Gubernatorial campaign

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Former Congressman JC Watts, who is widely rumored to be eyeing a run for Governor but has not yet announced his intentions, won a straw poll tonight in Stephens County. Watts garnered 65 votes, Mary Fallin 55 votes and Randy Brogdon 9 votes.

What makes Watts’ victory even more impressive is that he was the only one of the three who was not in attendance at the Stephens County GOP Fish Fry,where the straw poll was taken.

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