The Gallup Organization released their annual study of party affiliation by state and found the Democrats’ advantage slipping in all but a few states. Nationwide, Democrats accounted for 49% of registered voters, while Republicans accounted for 41%.
Democrat losses, and GOP gains, were strongest in Ohio, Hawaii, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Montana, and Maine. Montana actually flipped from Democrat advantage to GOP advantage. In Oklahoma, the Democrats started 2009 with a 6 point advantage, but by the end of the year that had slipped dramatically to a 1 point advantage. According to information from the State Election Board, Democrat registration dropped below 1 million (999,855) for the first time and GOP registration shot up by more than 20,000 to 813,000.
Only seven states showed gains for Democrats. They were all modest, ranging from 1 to 4 points, and came mostly from solid GOP-voting states like Utah and Nebraska.
One major caveat: these numbers are based on registration, not actual voting patterns. For example, Gallup lists Oklahoma as being a “competitive” state due to the nearly even registration numbers, but no one believes that to be true. We haven’t voted for a Democrat presidential contender since Lyndon Johnson and our Congressional delegation is solidly and safely Republican. Gallup only arrives at this conclusion because Democrats still hold a party registration advantage, albeit an increasingly tigthening one. Thus, the competitive categorization is meaningless here. This applies to other states as well, such as Texas and Kansas.
Taking this into account, the GOP advantage is actually larger than what Gallup makes it out to be, as more conservative Democrats and Independents will vote for the GOP candidate.
