After receiving positive feedback for our last examination of a race that was over before it began, we’re placing the spotlight on another primary destined to end up heavily lopsided.
Congresswoman Mary Fallin vs. State Senator Randy Brogdon for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. Fallin is serving her second term as the Congressional Representative for Oklahoma’s 5th District, prior to which she served three terms as Lieutenant Governor. Brogdon has represented the Owasso area in the State Senate since 2002.
As always, money is a very important factor in a campaign, especially on a statewide level. A successful candidate must be able to purchase enough media points to generate name identification, win supporters, and motivate them to vote. Here are the rounded fundraising figures through the last filing period in October.
Mary Fallin:
- Net Contributions: $872,000
- Cash on Hand: $438,000
Randy Brogdon:
- Net Contributions: $123,000 (includes a rollover from his Senate campaign)
- Cash on Hand: $58,000
This inadequacy is further highlighted by the failed efforts among hardcore Ron Paul supporters to mimic Paul’s successful “money bomb” fundraising tactic on Brogdon’s behalf.
Fallin’s frontrunner status is further confirmed today by the release of a survey by SoonerPoll.com in the Tulsa World. Fallin leads Brogdon 68% to 16%, with 16% unsure. It’s never a good sign when you’re 52 percent behind your opponent. It’s even worse when you’re tied with “Don’t know.” That means after months of campaigning you’ve managed to generate the same level of support as “There’s an election this year?”
Even more problematic for Brogdon is that Fallin leads 4-to-1 among self-described “very conservative” voters. This is the very segment of the primary electorate that Brogdon has targeted, and where his efforts should have paid off by now. This also means Brogdon is receiving a lot of his support among the less conservative. Where will those voters move as they become more familiar with Brodgon’s far right views and policies? Our guess is to Fallin.
The nail in the coffin, however, is in the favorability ratings. Fallin is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 29%, with 17% unsure. Brogdon is viewed favorably by 13%, unfavorably by 21% and 66% are unsure. So not only is Brogdon an unknown, he is on the whole viewed negatively by those familiar with him.
Primary prediction: Fallin 78%, Brogdon 22%
[...] Pretty significant. Will Brogdon continue running? Interesting question since his Ron Paul-styled “money bomb” failed to really raise the kind of money he needs to run against an established Republican like Mary Fallin. Read the post here. [...]